So I posted a piece on Internet Evolution (Scenario Planning: The Internet as Crystal Ball) that suggests scenario planning would be value to CIOs planning their future, and for Internet companies exploring theirs. The skepticism is telling, but I think the main point. In a data driven, short-attention span world, we need tools to help us think in the long-term in a robust way.
What is the difference between contingency planning and risk management. Both are mostly deterministic, but could be informed by scenarios. In Internet security it is the difference between measuring the number of known threat types and deciding if you have enough staff to manage those, and imaging entirely new threat models. If you do contingency planning and risk management well, you need to be able to do the later, but most don’t take the method that far. You need scenarios to do that.
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