CIOs: Augment Contingency Planning and Risk Assessments with Scenarios
So I posted a piece on Internet Evolution (Scenario Planning: The Internet as Crystal Ball) that suggests scenario planning would be value to CIOs planning their future, and for Internet companies exploring theirs. The skepticism is telling, but I think the main point. In a data-driven, short-attention-span world, we need tools to help us think in the long-term in a robust way.
What is the difference between contingency planning and risk management? Both are mostly deterministic but could be informed by scenarios. In Internet security, it is the difference between measuring the number of known threat types and deciding if you have enough staff to manage those, and imaging entirely new threat models. Conducts contingency planning and risk management will benefit from teams that unshackle their imagination. But most don’t take planning methods that far. You need scenarios to do that.
For more on scenario planning and CIOs, see Dan’s article at HBR.