“Leaders need scenario planning to survive” Now Available at Chief Learning Officer

“Leaders need scenario planning to survive” Now Available at Chief Learning Officer

Leadership training has long promised that capable leaders can navigate change with the right mix of strategy, communication and operational discipline. My new CLO article argues that promise is no longer sufficient. When once-stable assumptions about institutions, climate, trust, supply chains, technology and geopolitics can break down, leaders need more than better execution; they also need the ability to imagine credible alternatives before disruption forces their hand.

Scenario planning offers that discipline. The article makes the case for treating it as a core leadership capability: a way to identify fragile assumptions, recognize weak signals, rehearse uncertainty, and build options that remain valuable across very different futures. Generative AI can speed research and expand the range of possibilities, but it cannot replace human judgment, empathy, or the hard work of turning future narratives into present-tense decisions.

Top takeaways

• Scenario planning is a leadership skill, not an annual strategy exercise. It helps leaders test whether their strategy depends on conditions that may no longer hold.
• AI expands foresight—but does not create judgment. Leaders must curate AI-generated possibilities and convert them into choices about investment, risk, resilience, and renewal.
• Useful scenarios avoid both catastrophe and wishful thinking. The strongest scenario sets portray plausible pathways from today to multiple, meaningfully different futures—and make clear what action each future demands now.

🔗 Read the full article: Chief Learning Officer.

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