Scenario Planning for Human Resources: Key to Agility and Anticipation up at People Matters
Scenario Planning for Human Resources
Proud to have an article on scenario planning published in India’s premier HR publication.
If we all knew exactly how the future would turn out, there would be no need to negotiate plans. We would simply accept the future and decide how best to provide for the needs of our organization — paths forward would be clear, and deviations will become choices, rather than necessities.
Unfortunately, despite what many futurists and forecasters say about the certainty of trends, their pronouncements, often delivered with great authority, come without context. Trends rely on social, political, economic, environmental and technological assumptions regularly unarticulated by those who dogmatize trends. Any change to the underlying assumptions, and the trend may well derail, leaving its followers reacting to change, rather than navigating it.
As much as we want to believe that trends will inform us and help us make better decisions, the only way to really improve decision-making is to embrace uncertainty and deal with the underlying complexity of the world. The discipline best suited for this work is called scenario planning.
Daniel W. Rasmus, Founder and Principal Analyst of Serious Insights, is an internationally recognized speaker on the future of work and education. He is the author of several books, including Listening to the Future and Management by Design.
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