Category: Forecasting

Stephen Jay Gould on Trends and Progress: The Problem With Trends

Stephen Jay Gould The Problem Trends and Progress The problem with trends. Trend-watchers need to be cautious that they understand the idea of trends, and that they don’t just find them, but that they actively watch them. Trends have a habit of going off the rails. Stephen Jay Gould, in is 1988 Stanford Presidential Address “TRENDS.

Read more

17 Uncertainties that will Define (or Redefine) Your 2014

Download the entire paper here. 1. Workforce Dynamics Key Dynamic: Will the workforce effectively integrate, or will generational issues result in bifurcation? What skill gaps and needs for knowledge will emerge as each generation seeks to define its future? 2. Globalization Key Dynamic: Will the global economy march to ever more ubiquity, or will it.

Read more

Oxford’s Rafael Ramirez on Scenario Planning

Watch an exclusive interview with Rafael Ramirez, Director of the Oxford Scenarios Programme and Fellow in Strategy at the Saїd Business School and Green Templeton College, Oxford University. A world expert on scenario planning and a founder of theories on the aesthetics of business, work and organisation, Rafael Ramirez has worked in over 25 countries,.

Read more

Big Data is a Myth When Anticipating The Future

The Lera blog gets it right today, quoting Gary Hamel: “The problem with the future is that it is different. If you are unable to think differently, the future will always arrive as a surprise.” Big Data won’t foretell the future unless the future is just like today, and it never will be. If you.

Read more

Why Near Term Business “Trend” Forecasts Shouldn’t Be Trusted

I received a trend notification today of “5 things that will change in the workforce in 2013.” (I will leave the name of the publication out.) One of those items was:  the end of annual reviews. If this was a decade long forecast, the end of annual reviews would represent a good, controversial, thought-provoking item.

Read more

Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty

Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty The future of Big Data rather lies in the darkness of context change, complexity, and overconfidence Note: This article is updated from one that originally appeared at Fast Company. 2012 was declared the year of Big Data. The Data Warehousing Institute (TDWI) reported that 90.

Read more

Ladies’ Home Journal Century-Old Predictions Came True

Interesting story on John Elfreth Watkins prediction made in The Ladie’s Home Journal back in December 1900. Interestingly accurate in some cases, but like Nostradamus or Biblical interpretation, we often see the past through the lens of the present and forgive the details. Some of the concepts are pretty close, but the details aren’t. And.

Read more

Retro Thinking During A Difficult Kodak Moment

Way back in 2005, Bloomberg Businessweek ran a piece called "A Tense Kodak Moment." "Low-margin digital sales aren’t picking up the slack of disappearing film profits, and debt is coming due,” the piece proclaimed. This provided some prescient perspective for Eastman Kodak’s (NYSE: EK) current struggles, which it now appears to be betting on printing.

Read more

Ten Serendipity Economy Lessons Learned from Playing Words with Friends

Note: It will be useful for those new to the concept of the Serendipity Economy to read the paper first: Welcome to the Serendipity Economy. The Serendipity Economy turns our industrial age bias toward linearity, productivity and prediction on its head by suggesting that productivity doesn’t always lead to value, and that increasingly, we can’t.

Read more

The Consumerization of IT: Remembering the Past and Learning from IT

For many of today’s workers, the consumerization of IT means accessing company e-mail from an iPhone or Android device. Those a little older will remember the onslaught of instant messaging, perhaps even the original push of the web. "Why," the CIO might ask, "does an 80-year old company with established markets and customers need a.

Read more