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Serious Insights

Research and reviews from strategist, futurist and analyst Daniel W. Rasmus

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Forecasting

CES 2022 and the Future of Trade Shows [Video]

January 12, 2022 by Daniel W. Rasmus Leave a Comment

CES 2022 and the Future of Trade Shows Like hybrid work, virtual trade shows will likely continue even if COVID gets downgraded from pandemic to endemic. CES 2022 was the second live conference I did not attend. Information Today’s Knowledge Management World was once again shifted to virtual after months of planning for a return to Washington D.C. And then the Saturday … [Read more...] about CES 2022 and the Future of Trade Shows [Video]

Scenario Planning: 6 Reasons Data-Driven Forecasting Needs Scenarios

December 15, 2021 by Daniel W. Rasmus Leave a Comment

Those forecasting toy demand on an e-commerce site can benefit from several forecasting advances, including the integration of more contextual, operational real-time data, along with demand insights, pricing indicators, and promotions. But even with these advances, seasonality for instance, in retail, remains an issue. Forecasting becomes increasingly difficult and less … [Read more...] about Scenario Planning: 6 Reasons Data-Driven Forecasting Needs Scenarios

Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty

December 20, 2019 by Daniel W. Rasmus Leave a Comment

Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty

Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty The future of Big Data rather lies in the darkness of context change, complexity, and overconfidence Note: This article is updated from one that originally appeared at Fast Company. 2012 was declared the year of Big Data. The Data Warehousing Institute (TDWI) reported that 90 percent of the IT professionals … [Read more...] about Why Big Data Won’t Make You Smart, Rich, Or Pretty

Stephen Jay Gould on Trends and Progress: The Problem With Trends

May 1, 2015 by Daniel W. Rasmus Leave a Comment

Stephen Jay Gould The Problem Trends and Progress The problem with trends. Trend-watchers need to be cautious that they understand the idea of trends, and that they don't just find them, but that they actively watch them. Trends have a habit of going off the rails. Stephen Jay Gould, in is 1988 Stanford Presidential Address "TRENDS AS CHANGES IN VARIANCE: A NEW SLANT ON … [Read more...] about Stephen Jay Gould on Trends and Progress: The Problem With Trends

Why Near Term Business “Trend” Forecasts Shouldn’t Be Trusted

January 25, 2013 by Daniel W. Rasmus Leave a Comment

I received a trend notification today of “5 things that will change in the workforce in 2013.” (I will leave the name of the publication out.) One of those items was:  the end of annual reviews. If this was a decade long forecast, the end of annual reviews would represent a good, controversial, thought-provoking item to include in the list. But as for 2013 being the year, … [Read more...] about Why Near Term Business “Trend” Forecasts Shouldn’t Be Trusted

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