Scenario Planning, Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Scenario Planning, Earthquakes and Tsunamis

Disaster Scenarios. As we send our thoughts and prayers to the people of Japan, we need to consider the role that these unthinkable events play in our lives. In Japan, earthquakes and tsunamis are not unthinkable events, they are everyday occurrences, but that commonality has not bread national complacency, rather, it has heightened awareness about how bad a big version of a nearly daily event could be. Building codes and warning systems were invested in. As tragic the loss of life will likely be, people’s lives were saved because the Japanese government, its leaders and its citizens were willing to think about the unthinkable and plan for it. And I know that months from now, they will say they could have done more—humbleness about what we don’t know is the place were learning begins.

All organizations need to take a lesson from Japan. Your lesson may come from annoying, low level customer complaints that don’t seem to add up to much, until some catastrophic event happens, as it did a few years ago with vitamin and pet food quality and safety coming out of Chinese factories, or the issues of Toyota and their passenger threatening sticky carpet. Big things are often culminate when we ignore weak signals.

Japan knew about the weak signals, and it heeded their warning.

What weak signals is your company, your function, receiving but ignoring? What disaster are you facilitating by not paying attention to the world around you?

Daniel W. Rasmus

Daniel W. Rasmus, Founder and Principal Analyst of Serious Insights, is an internationally recognized speaker on the future of work and education. He is the author of several books, including Listening to the Future and Management by Design.

2 comments

    comments user

    Faisal Jaswal

    Thank you Dan. Would you be able to join the Student Program Staff at one of our staff mettings at Bellevue College soon?

    comments user

    Rochell McWhorter

    Thanks, Dan for your excellent post! Relevant questions for each of us to consider.

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