The focal question in scenario planning acts as an anchor and as a fence. It anchors the project so that people are clear about what they are solving for. “The future of learning” will pull in a dialogue about learning, acting like gravity, placing appropriate ideas, concepts and evidence in orbit, while material not related to the question floats off.
Focal question as anchor
Focal questions need to be precise, but also larger than any other question on the table. “What will learning look like in 2030?” for instance, is bigger than the “future of education” because it doesn’t presume education as the only means of learning. This opens up the conversation to self-motivated learners, just-in-time learners, corporate training and professional development and a wide range of other topics.
“The future of learning” is also much bigger than “what will our <insert your institution’s name> look like in 2030.” The broader question opens up the dialogue to the general uncertainties and forces shaping learning, which may also reshape the institution. If the institution becomes the focus, research and perspectives are likely to miss the bigger forces that may push it in directions it doesn’t foresee, regardless of what it wants to be. This type of project becomes overly self-reflective and tends to act like an echo chamber. Scenario projects should create a context that allows for the exploration of major influences everyone sees and for weak signals that may grow in influence over time.
It is important to note that the focal question needs to be broad, but that the scenarios themselves, once developed, can easily act as the foundation for exploring what an institution or any other concept might be in the future. But rather than creating the anchor and pulling the fence in close, the broader context creates space for the smaller ideas to interestingly roam.
Focal question as fence
And speaking of fences, the focal question serves as a fence, in that a project on learning should not explore ideas related to asteroid mining or the productivity of global agriculture. Those topics may present learning opportunities for which learners need to acquire skills, but the research won’t dive into the politics, economics or science of either topic, though both are ripe for their own scenario work.
As a fence, the focal question creates the basis for context. The focal question keeps the dialogue relevant to the problem space and stops project members from wandering into places that don’t really concern the question on the table (no matter how interesting they may be in their own right).
The focal question also acts as a fence for the project, reminding people that scenario planning is not a tool to feed “analysis paralysis,” but a decision-making tool designed to help organizations obtain better outcomes by more robustly exploring what could be, and the factors of influence in the future, before making long-range decisions with strategic impact.
Focal question tips
Focal questions should follow the following rules:
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Focal questions should be short (only a few words).
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Focal questions should create a context for the solution space the client wants to explore.
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Focal questions should be phrased to explore the long-range consequences of change.
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Focal questions should define time and space dimensions (the focal question, “What will learning look like in 2030” presumes a global space context, but “What will learning look like in America in 2030” would also be a valid focal question.)
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Focal questions should typically fall into one or more of the following categories (note that the last two in the list can also be outcomes of any of the previous items):
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Decisions that need to be made (should we or shouldn’t we)
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Strategic choices bounded by organization or location
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The region: city, state, county, country
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The organizational unit: division, function, technology or other smaller unit
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They should challenge assumptions about mission and vision
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They should encourage learning
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