Top Ten Reasons to Use Scenario Planning

The future is uncertain
You put your organization at risk when you think you are certain about something you can’t possibly be certain about, so you need a robust process to challenge assumptions
One of the best ways to drive innovation is to put people into places and situations that they haven’t imagined and ask them how products, processes or services morph under those conditions.
The only way to test ideas against different conditions is to setup the conditions of the test in a meaningful way
It’s hard to be surprised by something you imagined–and therefore, something you can plan for
Discontinuities make looking at historical information meaningless in many cases
For many future items, from interest rates to housing to technology innovation, more data won’t get you closer to a clearer forecast
You can’t adapt to changes in markets, competitive landscape or business models unless you understand the forces acting on the organization and how they shape and influence strategic choices
The only way to turn an emergent opportunity into a competitive advantage is to have the courage to look into the shadows and see it in the first place
Even though Drucker said the best way to predict the future is to invent it, most of us don’t invent it, we ride it out, so we better learn the best way to surf